Effects of the consumption tax hike and the sustainability of domestic private demand With regard to the real economy, the first issue-- and perhaps the one of immediate interest for you-- is theeffects of the consumption tax hike.
In other words, Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential through fiscal 2016 and maintain its positive growth in fiscal 2017, although with a slowing in its pace, due mainly to the effects of the consumption tax hike planned in April 2017.
Theimpact of the consumption tax hike scheduled for October 2019 on households will likely be smaller than that of the previous hike in 2014, owing to such government policy actions as fiscal easing measures, including the application of a reduced tax rate and the provision of free education.
On the other hand, regarding theimpact of the consumption tax rate hike last month, an industry group said,“We can't say that there has been no reactionary decline, but we can't make a decision just in the past month, and we will continue to pay attention.”.
In other words, Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential through fiscal 2016, and thereafter, through fiscal 2017, is likely to maintain its positive growth, although with a slowing in its pace, due mainly to the effects of the consumption tax hike planned in April 2017.
Therefore, in my view, a fair assessment of real wages would be that"while both a wage per worker and labor income as a whole have been increasing to the extent that matches price increases brought about by demand expansion, those have yet to rise to offset also theeffects of the consumption tax hike.
Regarding theeffects of the scheduled consumption tax hike, a few members said that, although the net burden on households was likely to be smaller than that of the hike in 2014, attention should be paid to the fact that such effects on the economy might vary depending on, for example, consumer sentiment and the employment and income situation at that time.
With the current decision, the BOJ also adopted forward guidance indicating its future policy interest rate direction, stating that the BOJ"intends to maintain the current extremely low levels of short- and long-term rates for an extended period of time, taking into account uncertainties regarding economic activity and prices including theeffects of the consumption tax hike scheduled to take place in October 2019.
Looking at the medians of the Policy Board members' forecasts in the April 2018 Outlook Report, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI(all items less fresh food) is projected to be 1.3 percent for fiscal 2018 and-- on a basis excluding theeffects of the scheduled consumption tax hike-- 1.8 percent each for fiscal 2019 and 2020.
According to the April 2018 Outlook Report, the medians of the Policy Board members' forecasts of the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI for all items less fresh food were 1.3 percent for fiscal 2018 and 1.8 percent for fiscal 2019 and 2020, excluding theeffects of the consumption tax hike.
Meanwhile, one member pointed out that, in a situation where some of the downside risks to overseas economies had materialized, a downward shift in Japan's economic phase had begun to progress, and, depending on developments in overseas economies and theeffects of the scheduled consumption tax hike, movement toward an economic downturn could heighten going forward.
In addition, members shared the recognition that theeffects of the scheduled consumption tax hike were subject to considerable uncertainties, as it was likely that the effects of the front-loaded increase and subsequent decline in demand prior to and after the consumption tax hike, and of the decline in real income, would depend on consumer sentiment, the employment and income situation, and developments in prices at each respective point in time.
The outlook just published by the Bank for the CPI inflation rate for the 2014 fiscal year is 0.9 percent excluding theeffects of the increase in the Consumption Tax rate. From the beginning of 2014, for some time, the Bank will buy financial assets totaling about 13 trillion yen every month, including 2 trillion yen in long-term Japanese government bonds.
In other words, Japan's economy is likely to gradually emerge from the recent pause, and after growing at a pace above its potential through fiscal 2016, is likely to maintain its positive growth in fiscal 2017, although with a slowing in its pace, due mainly to the effects of the consumption tax hike planned in April 2017.
Effects of the consumption tax hikes: 2 while the tax hikes will have adverse effects on households' real disposable income, the adverse effects on consumption may be mitigated to some extent by(1) scheduled economic measures to be taken by the government,(2) the high probability that the tax hikes are already factored in among households, and(3) the positive effect of alleviating households' future concerns over the fiscal condition and the social security system.
月の消費税率引き上げの影響は、事前の予想を上回るものでした。
One reason is that the negative impact of the consumption tax hike in April 2014 was larger than expected.
海外経済の動向や消費税率引き上げの影響次第では、国内景気が後退に向かうリスクが引き続きある。
There remains a risk that Japan's economy will head toward a downturn depending on developments in overseas economies and the effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike.
しかし、現在では、消費税率引き上げの影響が減衰しており、個人消費は緩やかな回復を続けています。
However, private consumption started to recover gradually as the adverse impact of the tax hike waned.
物価の基調を判断する際に、消費税率引き上げの影響を除いたベースで判断しているのはこのためです。
This is the reason why the Bank judges the trend in prices excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hike.
Following a likely decline in the second half of fiscal 2019 due to the effects of the consumption tax hike, private consumption and housing investment are expected to head gradually toward a recovery in fiscal 2020.
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