As for the outlook for Japan's economic activity and prices, risks-- such as uncertainty over the global economy and volatility in financial markets-- continue to be skewed to the downside.
In my view, the downside risks to the global economy have been diminishing on the whole, partly because concerns over the financial sector in Europe have abated.
Regarding the outlook for prices, inflation may fall more than expected if the downside risks to the economy materialize or medium- to long-term inflation expectations decline.
With regard to the risk balance, upside and downside risks to economic activity are generally balanced in fiscal 2018, but risks are skewed to the downside for fiscal 2019 onward.
There is a possibility that the U.S. and East Asian economies, particularly the Chinese economy, could make the global economy deviate below the Outlook, and reduce Japan's exports.
Exchange rate volatility that may arise from such factors poses a downside risk to the timing and strength of the support that financial conditions could provide to economic activity.
As for Asian economies with vulnerabilities arising from the high-level accumulation of private-sector debt, their downtrend may become more evident amid the spreading effects of the weaker-than-expected economic growth in the United States and China.
At the same time, since sizable exports have been made from those countries to the United States, the slowdown in the U.S. economy might have no small effect on emerging economies and such downside risks also require vigilance.
また、輸出環境を左右する海外経済動向については、中国経済の下振れリスクを最も注視しています。
As for developments in overseas economies that are a key determinant of Japan's export environment, I am paying utmost attention to the risk of weaker-than-expected growth for the Chinese economy.
Specifically, the global economy has come to face two main downside risks: an economic downturn triggered by the implementation of protectionist trade policies and capital outflows from emerging economies stemming from growing uncertainty in global financial markets.
In its annual review of the eurozone's economic policies, the IMF warned it faces“significant downside risks,” with government debt levels still too high and the banking sector still fragile and weighed down by bad loans.
Medium- to long-term fiscal sustainability: a decline in confidence in fiscal sustainability may lead the economy downward through, for example, excessive rises in long-term interest rates. The opposite would occur if confidence in the path toward fiscal consolidation strengthens.
To assure resilience to downside risks, developing countries need to gradually rebuild depleted fiscal and monetary buffers, and improve social safety nets and food security,” says Andrew Burns, Manager of Global Macroeconomics and lead author of the report.
With regard to prices, if downside risks to the economy materialize and the rate of change in prices continues to be negative for a long period of time, firms' and households' medium- to long-term inflation expectations may decline.
Against the backdrop of low inflation and increasing downside risks to a still-strong growth outlook, most economies can afford to keep monetary policy accommodative, while fiscal policy will increasingly need to focus on building buffers, and exchange rates should be kept flexible.
Central banks in the various countries or regions are likely to conduct the monetary policy they consider the most appropriate, while maintaining a balance between downside risks to economic growth due to the deterioration in the terms of trade and upside risks to inflation expectations.
The government would like to request that the Bank, in its future conduct of monetary policy, continue its policy efforts to overcome deflation together with the government and support the economy from the financial side responsibly, giving due consideration to downside risk to economic activity and prices as well as developments in financial markets.
One member noted that attention should be paid to the developments in negotiations on the United Kingdom's exit from the EU and the instability of the Turkish economy, but that the progress in trade negotiations between the United States and the EU since summer was a positive factor that would reduce downside risks to the outlook.
Since Japan's economy is susceptible to the U.S.-China trade friction and the inflation rate is far from 2 percent, it would be necessary for the Bank to consider the claims for conducting so-called preventive monetary easing against downside risks to economic activity and prices.
Although the expected inflation has not yet reached the price stability target of 2 percent, market concerns about the downside risk of inflation have steadily weakened. Interest rates in Japan seem to have started reflecting the upside risk of inflation as in the U.S. and European economies.
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