英語 での Policy board members の使用例とその 日本語 への翻訳
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Looking at the median of the Policy Board members' forecasts, the real GDP growth rate, following +1.0 percent in fiscal 2012, is somewhat high at +2.3 percent for fiscal 2013, partly due to a surge in consumer spending prior to the consumption tax hike.
According to the Bank's interim assessment, the median of the Policy Board members' forecasts of the real GDP growth rate was 1.7 percent for fiscal 2015, 1.5 percent for fiscal 2016, and 0.2 percent for fiscal 2017(Chart 9).
The Bank holds Monetary Policy Meetings(MPMs) every month, where the Policy Board members, at present eight including the Governor, discuss economic and financial developments, and decide on the guideline for monetary policy conduct for the immediate future.
Specifically, the Bank has made public its basic thinking on price stability, and, as regards the conduct of monetary policy, it has disclosed a level of the inflation rate that its Policy Board members currently understand as price stability from a medium- to long-term viewpoint.
Furthermore, the Risk Balance Charts-- which present the aggregated probability distributions compiled from the distributions attributed by individual Policy Board members to the likelihood of divergence upward or downward from their forecasts-- for the real GDP growth rate are skewed to the left, indicating that Policy Board members anticipate high downside risks.
Back then, the Bank was approaching the exit from its quantitative easing policy, which had lasted for the five years since 2001, and the Policy Board members had a wide range of views with regard to price stability in the coming new phase.
My outlook for economic activity is somewhat lower than the median of the Policy Board members' forecasts: around 1 percent for fiscal 2015; a little less than around 1.5 percent for fiscal 2016; and slightly above 0 percent for fiscal 2017, owing to a significant decline in the growth rate, due, for example, to the planned consumption tax hike.
According to the interim assessment made in January 2013, the Policy Board members' baseline scenario for Japan's economy is that it is expected to level off more or less for the time being, and thereafter it will return to a moderate recovery path as domestic demand remains resilient, partly due to the effects of various economic measures, and as overseas economies gradually emerge from the deceleration phase.
According to the April 2018 Outlook Report, the medians of the Policy Board members' forecasts of the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI for all items less fresh food were 1.3 percent for fiscal 2018 and 1.8 percent for fiscal 2019 and 2020, excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike.
Let me reiterate the significance of achieving the price stability target of 2 percent. The price stability target is set based on the CPI for all items, and as reference figures to capture its underlying trend, the Bank has used the CPI for all items less fresh food in presenting the Policy Board members' projections.
With regard to the relationship between the economic outlook and monetary policy, the median of the Policy Board members' forecasts for economic activity provided in the October 2013 Outlook Report factors in the effect of the two scheduled consumption tax hikes. Japan's economy is likely to continue to see high growth at a pace above its potential through fiscal 2014 and 2015, even taking into account temporary declines due to the consumption tax hikes.
Nonetheless, I believe that the description of forward guidance introduced by the Bank in July--"[t]he Bank intends to maintain the current extremely low levels of short- and long-term interest rates for an extended period of time"-- is just the natural conclusion to be drawn from the Policy Board members' CPI forecasts and the observed inflation rate clearly being far from the 2 percent price stability target.
As described in the minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting held on October 31, 2013, my own view on the outlook for prices is somewhat more cautious than the majority view of the Bank's Policy Board members. That does not mean that I am skeptical of the QQE's effects, nor does it mean that I deny the ability of the QQE's transmission mechanism-- envisaged by the Policy Board-- to shift people's expectations.
In terms of the median of the Policy Board members' forecasts, the real GDP growth rate is projected to be at -0.4 percent in fiscal 2011 due mainly to the effects of the earthquake disaster and the slowdown in overseas economies. For fiscal 2012, the economy is expected to grow by 2.0 percent as the pace of recovery in overseas economies picks up, led by emerging and commodity-exporting economies, and reconstruction-related demand gradually materializes.
A New Framework for the Conduct of Monetary Policy(1) Clarifying Price Stability The Bank of Japan will review its basic thinking on price stability, and disclose a level of inflation rate that its Policy Board members currently understand as price stability from a medium- to long-term viewpoint, in their conduct of monetary policy"an understanding of medium- to long-term price stability," see infra.
The average of the economists' forecasts and the median of the Bank's Policy Board members' forecasts were then compared in Chart 13.
In terms of the median of the Policy Board members' forecasts of the real GDP growth rate, this was 0.2 percent for fiscal 2017.
In addition, the Bank of Japan Law permits government representatives to request a postponement of the Policy Board members' vote on policy proposals to the next MPM.
In the meantime, in October 2000, the Bank released the forecasts for the economy and prices, not of the Bank as a whole, but of the individual Policy Board members.
The median of the Policy Board members' forecasts in July for the core CPI was at around minus 0.4 percent for fiscal 2010, and at around 0.1 percent for fiscal 2011.