The modern economic theory of liquidity traps indicates that the optimal policy response at zero-bound is to lower the real interest rate, almost surely by employing unconventional policy tools.
The level of the interest rate that balances savings and investment and neither accelerates nor decelerates the economy is called the natural rate of interest, or the equilibrium real interest rate.
Our first finding is that Japan saves optimally when the rate of time preference is assumed to be zero while it over-saves when the real interest rate is used to approximate the rate of time preference.
When the real interest rate goes down, in other words, the magnitude of the substitution effect, which stimulates consumption, outweighs that of the income effect, which reduces interest income.
Similarly, the real rate is decomposed into the expected real rate and the real term premium, and the inflation swap rate into the expected inflation and the IRP.
Thereal interest rate is the interest rate that has been adjusted for the effects of rises and falls in prices, and can be calculated by subtracting the expected inflation rate from the nominal interest rate..
With such a decline in real interest rates, business fixed investment and private consumption are expected to be stimulated, thereby elevating economic activity.
The current continuous fall in prices would dampen demand, reducing firms' incentive to invest through an increase in real interest rates and causing households to postpone spending.
This aims to seek a decline in real interest rates, which has been the main transmission mechanism of policy effects since the introduction of QQE, by controlling short- and long-term interest rates..
The Bank will take appropriate measures depending on the situation, but in any event, the policy effects will be exerted basically through real interest rates and risk premia of asset prices.
Namely, China has been lowering policy interest rates more flexibly in response to a declining trend in the inflation rate since November 2014-- to contain an increase in real interest rates.
Figure 1: The natural rate in New Keynesian models The natural rate is given at the intersection of the demand and supply curves in the funds market, as is the actual real interest rate, but in the hypothetical economy in which all prices are flexible.
But in this case, we are seeing the future now and have the opportunity to prepare for the challenges related to persistently low natural real rates of interest.
The findings of the comprehensive assessment are as follows. First, QQE has brought about improvements in economic activity and prices mainly through the decline in real interest rates.
In fact, a permanent change in expected inflation, say from 2 percent to 1 percent, will change only the nominal rate(in this case from 7 percent to 6 percent) and leave the real rate unchanged.
If, however, the zero bound on nominal rates were to have prevented the real interest rate from falling, the real rate would decline as inflation rises.
Effect of lowering real interest rates So far I have provided an explanation from the viewpoint of downward pressure on nominal interest rates. In terms of stimulating an effect on economic activity, what is important is"real interest rates," which affect decision-making on spending, including business fixed investment and housing investment.
We find that the demographic changes over the last 50 years reduced the real interest rate. About 270 out of the 640 basis points decline in real interest rates during this period was attributed to declining labor inputs and higher saving, which themselves stemmed from the lower fertility rate and increased life expectancy.
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