英語 での Real interest rate の使用例とその 日本語 への翻訳
{-}
-
Colloquial
-
Ecclesiastic
-
Computer
-
Programming
What you need in this situation is a negative real interest rate- which means that you need some expected inflation, because nominal rates face the zero lower bound.
You don't have to accept my own notorious proposal for"managed inflation", although to me the case for believing that Japan's economy needs a negative real interest rate, and hence needs inflation, seems overwhelming.
I cannot see any way to deny the proposition that the Japanese economy, as currently constituted, would need a negative real interest rate to achieve full employment.
To argue that inflation is unnecessary, then, one must believe that other policies can shift the savings and/or investment schedules sufficiently to make the required real interest rate positive.
However this also means that the gross interest rate(1+r) could be less than one, so the steady state real interest rate could be negative.
We find that the demographic changes over the last 50 years reduced the real interest rate. About 270 out of the 640 basis points decline in real interest rates during this period was attributed to declining labor inputs and higher saving, which themselves stemmed from the lower fertility rate and increased life expectancy.
Generally speaking, the main transmission channel of monetary easing would be as follows: it will cut the real interest rate-- that is, interest rate adjusted by inflation expectations-- and stimulate economic activities such as business fixed investment and housing investment.
As Eggertsson and Mehrotra point out, however, this approach effectively rules out anything like secular stagnation: the real interest rate eventually must equal the discount rate of whichever players matter on the margin.
When long-term economic growth potential is increasing and people's views on prices are changing, the real interest rate level that is considered to be neutral to economic activity-- the natural rate of interest-- will rise and the observed real interest rates will decrease.
But neither is the low real interest rate evidence that Japanese monetary policy is doing all that it can to offset deflationary pressures arising from other causes(in particular, the effects of the collapse in asset prices and of banking problems on consumer spending and investment spending).
On the contrary, the proposition that the Japanese economy needs a negative real interest rate, which means that it needs expected inflation, is a direct implication of the same framework that most working macroeconomists routinely use for policy analysis.
The US dollar-based real interest rate of this financing is approximately 4.6%(Yen equivalent based on a swap rate as of March 1: approximately 1.6%) and the expiration date is August 2011(7 years and 6 months) maximum.
The problem with this policy is that it is deflationary, in the sense of accommodating all deflation that occurs before inflation turns nonnegative. Hence, it does not prevent expectations of deflation and a too high real interest rate.
What is new about the arguments of Summers is that the equilibrium real interest rate has been declining for a long time, not temporarily, on a global scale, against the background of, for example, excess savings in countries with a current account surplus and the decrease in the nominal investment amount arising from declining capital goods prices.
In fact, as our colleague Richard Clarida emphasized in the November 2015 Global Central Bank Focus,“ r*=New Neutral,” a neutral real interest rate of around zero has actually been PIMCO's core thesis ever since our May 2014 Secular Forum.
If the highway will cost $1 billion, last indefinitely with regular maintenance and repairs, and yield projected annual net benefits to society of $20 million, a long-term real interest rate of 3% would make it nonviable.
Under the Taylor rule, the policy interest rate is calculated based on the equilibrium real interest rate(that is, the real interest rate that is considered theoretically as an average in the medium to long term and is determined by the potential growth rate), and using the target inflation rate, the deviation of the actual inflation rate from the target inflation rate, and the output gap.
Then if the expected inflation rate is too small to allow a low enough real interest rate- if, for example, the economy"needs" a minus 3 real interest rate, and expected inflation is only 1 percent- the actual result will be an underemployed economy, and hence continuing slow deflation.
First, I agree that the low real interest rate is evidence that monetary policy is not the primary source of deflationary pressure in Japan today, in the way that(for example) the policies of Fed Chairman Paul Volcker were the primary source of disinflationary pressures in the United States in the early 1980s(a period of high real interest rates). .
Recent studies suggest that the equilibrium real interest rate in the medium to long run is on a decreasing trend in advanced economies, and a declining and aging population has contributed to this trend to some extent.3 Based on the discussion so far, we can assume that a declining and aging population is likely to increase savings, or decrease investment, or both, at least for the time being.