Our assessment is that an upside risk to this projection would be large fluctuations in economic activity and prices as the stimulative effect of monetary policy is further increasing, while a downside risk would be the possibility that economic expansion and rising prices may stall.
In striving for sustainable growth, we must also be aware that although Japan's growth rate currently is only around 2 percent, not only prices of goods and services, but also those of assets may be affected if the economic expansion continues over a long period.
Overseas economic and financial developments In the United States, the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) raised its target for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point on November 16 to keep inflationary imbalances in check and to sustain the economic expansion.
The miscalculation of the previous administration was that these measures did not have a ripple effect to a wide range of sectors or lead to an acceleration of economic expansion, with corporate management becoming more conservative, and a widening gap between household income levels.
The weakness in wages per worker may be reflecting not only the fact that the pace of economic expansion has been moderate, but also the fact that there have been structural changes in the labor market, reflecting, for example, changes in people's lifestyles.
However, the Tokai region-- the frontrunner of Japan's economic expansion-- has shown a rise in the active job openings-to-applicants ratio to 1.8, indicating that the region's labor market conditions are much tighter than those of the national average.
On the merit side, one can point out that the absence of foreign exchange risks within the region and reduced transaction costs stimulated intra-regional trade and investment, and that the converging low level of interest rates in member countries for more than ten years induced an expansion in economic activity.
While the average growth rate during these years was not high, compared with those in the past, the duration of economic expansion lasted six years and a month, the longest period of economic expansion in the post-war era, longer than the"Izanagi Boom" Chart 3.
A more rational view is one that sees Bulgaria be based on a management model of German type, according to the program of the right, where the influence of Berlin could be exercised as economic expansion of German companies looking for cheap labor, of course, a this arrangement will preclude any commingling with Moscow.
As the economic expansion lengthens and matures, growth in business fixed investment is likely to moderate. As a result, the economic growth rate is likely to slow gradually from around 2.5 percent for fiscal 2006 to around 2 percent for fiscal 2007, approaching the potential growth rate.
Business fixed investment-- such as that intended for domestic capacity expansion in line with the economic expansion, that related to urban redevelopment projects, and labor-saving investment to address labor shortage-- is likely to increase moderately amid accommodative financial conditions, despite downward pressure resulting mainly from cyclical adjustments in capital stock accompanying the prolonged economic expansion.
The second possible option is contrary to the first but less likely; in this case, they would have the best power in Germany as well, which would be contrary to rigor, and this could favor a continental phase marked by economic expansion, with possible reflections on inflation, which could have increased values.
In the United States, during the period of economic expansion preceding the Lehman shock-- from 2002 to 2007-- the real incomes of the highest-income households in the top 1 percentile increased by 86 percent and household average income increased by 20 percent. In contrast, the"median" household income-- that is, the income that represents the middle of a series of all household incomes arranged in order of size-- increased only by 10 percent, which amounts to just half the growth of the average income Chart 9.
か月連続の景気拡大です。
Months of economic expansion is a long time.
年代の景気拡大は106カ月続いた。
The current economic expansion has lasted 106 months.
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