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この委員は、新系列のGDPは経済の変動をより適切に反映しているとして、ゼロ金利政策の解除が行われた2000年には、年後半にかけて実質GDPの伸びが高まる姿となっている、と指摘した。
This member said that the new GDP series reflected economic developments more accurately than the previous ones, and pointed out that in 2000, when the Bank terminated the zero interest rate policy, the real GDP growth rate had increased in the second half of the year.
この委員は、重要なポイントは、今後、デフレが加速したり、デフレを起点としたマイナスの動きが経済に拡がってくるかであるが、今回の標準的な見通しにおいては、デフレ・スパイラルのような状況に陥ることは想定されていない、と述べた。
This member said that the important issue was whether deflation would accelerate and negative effects stemming from it would spread to the economy, but the economy was not expected to fall into a deflationary spiral in the standard scenario.
この委員は、消費者物価の先行きを考える際には、(1)GDPギャップの大きさのほか、(2)GDPギャップの縮小テンポや、(3)輸入物価の動向にも注目すべきであるとの見解を示した。
The member said that attention should be paid to the pace of narrowing of the output gap and to developments in import prices, in addition to the size of the output gap, when assessing future developments in consumer prices.
この委員は、札割れが頻発している中で、買い切り増額も理屈上はありうる選択であるとしたうえで、最近の長期金利の微妙な動きを踏まえると、今は慎重に臨みたいとの見解を示した。
This member expressed the view that in the current situation where undersubscription occurred frequently, increasing the Bank's outright purchases of JGBs could be considered in theory as one policy option. This member, however, continued that this matter should be handled carefully at this point given the recent sensitive movements in long-term interest rates.
そのうえで、この委員は、需給ギャップや予想インフレ率が物価を押し上げる動きが十分に働いているとは言い難く、依然低水準にとどまっている中長期の予想インフレ率の動きを踏まえると、トレンドインフレ率が2%に向けて明確に上昇するとの確信を持てる状況にはないとの見解を示した。
This member then expressed the view that it was difficult to say that the output gap and inflation expectations were sufficiently working as a driving force to push up prices, and that considering developments in medium- to long-term inflation expectations, which remained at a low level, this was not a situation where one could assume with confidence that the trend inflation rate would clearly rise toward 2 percent.
ただ、この委員は同時に、労働コストの着実な低下や企業収益の改善を踏まえると、企業部門における前向きのメカニズムは機能しているほか、長短金利にも低下余地があるため、回復力は弱いとしても、景気が二番底に向かう可能性は低いとの見解を示した。
At the same time, this member expressed the view that although the momentum for economic recovery might be weak, the economy was unlikely to slide into a double dip. This was because a virtuous circle was operating in the corporate sector, judging from the steady decline in labor costs and improvement in corporate profits, and there was room for further decline in both short- and long-term interest rates.
さらにこの委員は、こうした状況の下で、なお経済に何らかの影響を持つ資金供給を行おうとすれば、理論的には、マネーとの違いが残っている資産--例えば、長期国債や民間の長期資産など--を買っていくことにならざるを得ない、との見解を示した。
Further, this member expressed the view that, in theory, the Bank would have to purchase assets that were still quite different from money--such as JGBs and long-term assets of the private sector--in order for the funds injected into the market to have some influence on the economy even in the above-mentioned circumstances.
また、この委員は米国株価動向についても言及し、NASDAQが古典的な投機バブルの崩壊過程にあり、投信からの資金流出も続いていることを踏まえると、米国株価が金融引き締めにもかかわらず上昇を続けてきたことと同様に、金融を緩和しても株価が下げ止まらない可能性がある、との懸念を表明した。
With regard to U.S. stock prices, this member expressed concern that they might continue to fall despite monetary easing given that they had continued to rise despite monetary tightening, as Nasdaq stocks were in the classic process of the bursting of a speculative bubble and money was flowing out of mutual funds.
この委員は、1999年から2000年にかけての回復局面の経験や現在の需給ギャップの状況などから考えても、物価が安定的にゼロ%以上となるためには、循環要因が極めて強いか、構造的な調整が終了し、この面から持続的な上昇圧力が働くかどちらかが必要であると指摘した。
This member said that considering the previous recovery phase experienced during 1999-2000 and the present size of the output gap, either extremely strong cyclical factors or continuous upward pressure stemming from completion of structural adjustments would be necessary for the CPI to register"stably a zero percent or an increase year on year.
この委員は、今後、金融不安の後退や景気回復期待の強まりに応じて、予備的な流動性需要が減少する可能性があり、その際、当座預金残高の伸び率低下が金融引き締めと誤解されないよう、説明をしっかり行っていく必要があると述べた。
This member said that precautionary demand for liquidity could decrease in the future when concerns about the stability of the financial system subsided and expectations of an economic recovery strengthened, and if the growth rate of the outstanding balance of current accounts decreased due to this, the Bank should clearly convey its thinking to the public regarding the decrease to avoid possible misunderstanding that the Bank had started to tighten monetary policy.
この委員は、個人消費を巡る環境について、(1)雇用不安や年金・医療制度の先行きへの不安が根強い一方で、(2)借入れ残高の動向などからみて家計のバランスシート調整に伴う消費下押し圧力は徐々に小さくなっている、との見解を示した。
Regarding the environment for private consumption, this member expressed the view that while the level of anxiety among the general public about the employment situation and the outlook for the pension and medical system remained high, downward pressure on consumption arising from household balance-sheet adjustments was gradually easing, judging from the developments in outstanding loans.
また、この委員は、金融機関の預金・貸出金利には契約上、運用上のゼロフロアがあると考えられることや、民間部門の資金の運用・調達構造を踏まえると、現状以上の金利低下は、実体経済への効果よりも、副作用を助長するリスクの方が大きい可能性があると指摘した。
This member also pointed out that there was a possibility that a further decline in interest rates would result in a greater risk of inducing side effects on the real economy, rather than positive effects, considering(1) that there likely was a zero lower bound-- contractually and operationally-- on financial institutions' interest rates on deposits and loans and(2) the investment and funding structures of the private sector.
また、この委員は、銀行株の下落は不良債権の処理と最終的な損失規模の確定を早期に行うことを求める市場の警告であるとして、(1)不良債権の抜本処理に大胆に着手すべきこと、(2)自己資本が自力調達できない先には公的資本投入を早期に行うべきことを強く主張した。
This member said that the fall in bank stock prices was a warning from the market, which demanded progress in disposal of NPLs and an early determination of the final amount of losses, and the member strongly emphasized that(1) a decisive disposal of NPLs should be started, and(2) an early injection of public funds into banks which could not strengthen their capital bases by themselves should be implemented.
この委員は、金融再生プログラムの具体的な内容が不透明なことから、大手企業の間では、資金の前倒し調達を検討する動きが一部にみられ、企業の資金需要が高まる可能性が出ている一方、銀行はスプレッド引き上げを提示しつつ、より早めに貸出の回収を図ろうとして資金供給を絞っていく懸念が大きいと指摘した。
This member expressed concern that since the specific measures of the"Program for Financial Revival" were not clear yet, some large firms were planning to bring forward their schedules for raising funds and this might increase overall liquidity demand. In the meantime, banks were likely to reduce the volume of lending by accelerating collection of loans while offering higher lending spreads.
この委員は、(1)当面予想される財政支出減少の規模は、97年と比べてはるかに小さい、(2)当時のアジア危機とか金融システム不安という環境も現在は変わっている、(3)GDPベースでみて、すでに昨年後半から財政支出の大幅な減少が始まっており、その中で景気回復が明確化していることに着目すべきである、と述べた。
This member said that(1) the size of the expected decrease in fiscal spending was much smaller than that in 1997,(2) the economic environment had changed from 1997 when the Asian financial crisis erupted and concern about instability in the Japanese financial system mounted, and(3) the economy had been improving clearly although fiscal spending had started to decrease significantly from the second half of 1999, according to GDP data.
この委員は、この結果、名目消費の落ち込みが目立っていると続けた。
This member added that this tendency had caused the noticeable decline in nominal consumption.
そのうえで、この委員は、利鞘の改善にとって必要なのは預金の削減であると述べた。
This member then said that a decrease in deposits was necessary for improving profit margins.
さらにこの委員は、先行きのリスクとして、原油価格の動向と、米国株価の動向を挙げた。
As future risk factors, this member raised the developments in crude oil prices and U.S. stocks.
この委員は、そうした観点から、東アジアおよび中国経済の動向に注目する必要があると述べた。
From this standpoint, the member remarked that attention should be paid to economic developments in China and other East Asian countries.
この委員は、消費が持ちこたえている間に経済全体を立て直すことが重要である、と付け加えた。
This member continued that it was also important to rejuvenate the economy while private consumption was holding out.
結果: 5907, 時間: 0.0225

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