This member said that the new GDP series reflected economic developments more accurately than the previous ones, and pointed out that in 2000, when the Bank terminated the zero interest rate policy, the real GDP growth rate had increased in the second half of the year.
This member said that the important issue was whether deflation would accelerate and negative effects stemming from it would spread to the economy, but the economy was not expected to fall into a deflationary spiral in the standard scenario.
The member said that attention should be paid to the pace of narrowing of the output gap and to developments in import prices, in addition to the size of the output gap, when assessing future developments in consumer prices.
This member expressed the view that in the current situation where undersubscription occurred frequently, increasing the Bank's outright purchases of JGBs could be considered in theory as one policy option. This member, however, continued that this matter should be handled carefully at this point given the recent sensitive movements in long-term interest rates.
This member then expressed the view that it was difficult to say that the output gap and inflation expectations were sufficiently working as a driving force to push up prices, and that considering developments in medium- to long-term inflation expectations, which remained at a low level, this was not a situation where one could assume with confidence that the trend inflation rate would clearly rise toward 2 percent.
At the same time, this member expressed the view that although the momentum for economic recovery might be weak, the economy was unlikely to slide into a double dip. This was because a virtuous circle was operating in the corporate sector, judging from the steady decline in labor costs and improvement in corporate profits, and there was room for further decline in both short- and long-term interest rates.
Further, this member expressed the view that, in theory, the Bank would have to purchase assets that were still quite different from money--such as JGBs and long-term assets of the private sector--in order for the funds injected into the market to have some influence on the economy even in the above-mentioned circumstances.
With regard to U.S. stock prices, this member expressed concern that they might continue to fall despite monetary easing given that they had continued to rise despite monetary tightening, as Nasdaq stocks were in the classic process of the bursting of a speculative bubble and money was flowing out of mutual funds.
This member said that considering the previous recovery phase experienced during 1999-2000 and the present size of the output gap, either extremely strong cyclical factors or continuous upward pressure stemming from completion of structural adjustments would be necessary for the CPI to register"stably a zero percent or an increase year on year.
This member said that precautionary demand for liquidity could decrease in the future when concerns about the stability of the financial system subsided and expectations of an economic recovery strengthened, and if the growth rate of the outstanding balance of current accounts decreased due to this, the Bank should clearly convey its thinking to the public regarding the decrease to avoid possible misunderstanding that the Bank had started to tighten monetary policy.
Regarding the environment for private consumption, this member expressed the view that while the level of anxiety among the general public about the employment situation and the outlook for the pension and medical system remained high, downward pressure on consumption arising from household balance-sheet adjustments was gradually easing, judging from the developments in outstanding loans.
This member also pointed out that there was a possibility that a further decline in interest rates would result in a greater risk of inducing side effects on the real economy, rather than positive effects, considering(1) that there likely was a zero lower bound-- contractually and operationally-- on financial institutions' interest rates on deposits and loans and(2) the investment and funding structures of the private sector.
This member said that the fall in bank stock prices was a warning from the market, which demanded progress in disposal of NPLs and an early determination of the final amount of losses, and the member strongly emphasized that(1) a decisive disposal of NPLs should be started, and(2) an early injection of public funds into banks which could not strengthen their capital bases by themselves should be implemented.
This member expressed concern that since the specific measures of the"Program for Financial Revival" were not clear yet, some large firms were planning to bring forward their schedules for raising funds and this might increase overall liquidity demand. In the meantime, banks were likely to reduce the volume of lending by accelerating collection of loans while offering higher lending spreads.
This member said that(1) the size of the expected decrease in fiscal spending was much smaller than that in 1997,(2) the economic environment had changed from 1997 when the Asian financial crisis erupted and concern about instability in the Japanese financial system mounted, and(3) the economy had been improving clearly although fiscal spending had started to decrease significantly from the second half of 1999, according to GDP data.
この委員は、この結果、名目消費の落ち込みが目立っていると続けた。
This member added that this tendency had caused the noticeable decline in nominal consumption.
そのうえで、この委員は、利鞘の改善にとって必要なのは預金の削減であると述べた。
This member then said that a decrease in deposits was necessary for improving profit margins.
さらにこの委員は、先行きのリスクとして、原油価格の動向と、米国株価の動向を挙げた。
As future risk factors, this member raised the developments in crude oil prices and U.S. stocks.
この委員は、そうした観点から、東アジアおよび中国経済の動向に注目する必要があると述べた。
From this standpoint, the member remarked that attention should be paid to economic developments in China and other East Asian countries.
この委員は、消費が持ちこたえている間に経済全体を立て直すことが重要である、と付け加えた。
This member continued that it was also important to rejuvenate the economy while private consumption was holding out.
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