Today, I will talk about the outlook for Japan's economy and its medium- to long-term challenges, and viewpoints of the conduct of monetary policy, while focusing on the European debt problem which is the greatest concern for the global economy for the time being.
I have so far described the current situation of the European debt problem and its fundamental character. Keeping those in mind, in the remaining time, I will refer to the developments in Japan's economy and the Bank of Japan's thinking of the conduct of monetary policy.
Accommodative Financial Conditions and Measures to Take Advantage of These Conditions Under such powerful monetary easing, stability in financial markets and the financial system has been maintained even during the period when they faced strong headwinds-- that is, when the Great East Japan Earthquake and the European debt problem hit the markets.
However, in order to resolve the European debt problem fundamentally, it is necessary for countries whose fiscal sustainability has been a cause for concern to make some progress in meeting the challenges such as fiscal consolidation, strengthening medium- to long-term growth potential, and reinforcing the stability of the financial system.
Thanks to massive liquidity provision by the European Central Bank and financial support to Greece, the possibility that the European debt problem will induce turmoil in global financial and capital markets through funding problems of financial institutions has at least lessened.
Overview(summary of Chapters II to VI) Chapter II: Examination of the external environment In the global financial markets and overseas economies, concerns over the European debt problem and over the effects of U.S. fiscal austerity that heightened in the first half of 2013 subsided somewhat compared with the situation at the time of the previous Report.
The global financial crisis, which brought about severe disruptions in the global financial markets and a significant downturn in the global economy, has had various impacts on the global economy to date, including the European debt problem in the 2010s.
The following are also considered as risks: developments in emerging and commodity-exporting economies; negotiations on the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union(EU) and their effects; prospects regarding the European debt problem, including the financial sector; and geopolitical risks.
The problem-- posed by the financial market turmoil caused by the Global Financial Crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis as well as its spillover effects on the real economy-- was an acute disease, so to speak, so it was clear what solutions should be prescribed.
Although we at Dai-ichi Life faced various challenges such as the European sovereign debt crisis and the Great East Japan Earthquake during the past three years following our IPO, we now believe that our business initiatives will be more directly reflected in our revenue going forward.
While we have maintained a high level of sales of new business, especially single premium insurance and medical products, we recorded 85.1 billion yen of losses on valuation of securities as a result of global deterioration of the stock market and yen appreciation in relation to the European sovereign debt crisis.
The tail risk that the European debt problem will lead to global financial market turmoil and a significant global economic downturn has decreased on the whole, although considerable uncertainty remains. The recent stability in prices of primary commodities is another positive factor Chart 28.
Greece, Spain, and Italy, which are caught in the vortex of Europe's debt dilemma, are all currently capable of only achieving productivity growth rates that fall below the trend line, indicating the relationship between average productivity growth rates and real growth rates in OECD countries.
The effects of the sovereign debt problems in Europe The sovereign debt problems in Europe surfaced in October 2009 when, following a change of government, the new administration in Greece revealed that the country's fiscal deficits were larger than previously announced.
Even though several years had passed since the Lehman shock, overseas economies remained unable to emerge from the phase of post-crisis adjustment; that is, the chronic economic downturn. Subsequently, these economies were struck by multiple waves of significant shocks, including the worsening of the European sovereign debt problem and concern about a potential disintegration of the euro, as well as a delayed recovery in the employment situation and the fiscal problem in the United States.
Since the outbreak of the Greek crisis in May 2010, the number of countries targeted by the markets has increased. While support by the monetary and fiscal authorities has expanded during this time, tensions have spread even to Italy and Spain, and thus risks associated with the European sovereign debt problem seem to be on the rise.
While volatility in the financial markets has been contained to some extent, many of the economic indicators of consumer and business confidence have remained weak. In addition, in a situation where concern over the European sovereign debt problem has been reignited, it seems that the trend of risk aversion in the financial markets is continuing.
Some argue that the output gap has deteriorated following a series of domestic and external shocks, such as the collapse of the asset bubbles in the early 1990s, the Japanese financial crisis and East Asian currency crises in the second half of the 1990s, the collapse of the IT bubble in the early 2000s in the United States, the global financial crisis of 2008, the European sovereign debt crisis since 2010, and the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011.
As for the European sovereign debt problem, additional support for Greece was decided at the European Union leaders' summit on July 21 and sovereign bonds spreads against German government bonds and the credit default swap(CDS) rate temporarily narrowed significantly; however, since the root cause of the debt problem was not addressed, tensions spilled over to Italy and Spain, resulting in a spike in government bond yields in both countries, and financial markets became destabilized.
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