In fact, bank lending, which had been declining, has increased over the past three years at an annual rate of about 2 percent(Chart 5). Stock prices have risen as well, and the excessive appreciation of the yen has been corrected. Against the backdrop of such improvement in capital markets, economic growth and the underlying trend in inflation have increased.
The output gap in the economy as a whole, which affects the underlying price trend, is expected to narrow, reflecting the economic recovery. The extent of the narrowing, however, is hard to estimate because firms tend to start new investment related to technological innovation before capacity utilization becomes too high.
Monetary Policy Management Rationale for a Negative Interest Rate Policy and its Effects Taking account of the environment surrounding Japan's economy, such as the decline in crude oil prices and the developments in emerging and commodity-exporting economies, as well as the volatility in global financial markets reflecting these developments, there is an increasing risk that an improvement in business sentiment and conversion of peoples' deflationary mindset might be delayed and that the underlying trend in inflation might be negatively affected.
しかし、物価の基調は着実に高まっていくとみています。
Nevertheless, we are of the view that the underlying trend in inflation will rise steadily.
こうした経済の好転を受けて、物価の基調も着実に高まってきました。
Reflecting this turnaround in the economy, the underlying trend in inflation has also steadily increased.
実体経済の改善を受けて、物価の基調も着実に改善しています(図表8)。
On the back of the improvement of the real economy, the underlying trend in inflation has been steadily improving Chart 8.
わが国の物価の基調が着実に改善していると判断している根拠は2つあります。
The Bank is ofthe view that the underlying trend in inflation has been improving steadily, and this is based on two factors.
要するに、物価の基調的な動きを判断しながら、必要な時点まで金融緩和を継続するということです。
In short, analyzing the fundamental movement of prices, the Bank intends to continue with monetary easing, as long as it is necessary.
量的・質的金融緩和」導入以降、物価の基調は着実に改善しています(図表5)。
The underlying trend in inflation has steadily improved since the introduction of QQE Chart 5.
もっとも、私としては、月々の物価指数の振れよりも、重要なのは、物価の基調と考える。
To be sure, I consider that the underlying trendin prices is more important than monthly fluctuations in price indicators.
もっとも、日本銀行では、「物価の基調」は着実に改善しているとみています。
Nonetheless, the Bank is ofthe view that the underlying trend in inflation has been improving steadily.
In terms of monetary policy, I believe that it is appropriate to exclude the effects of energy prices as temporary factors and grasp the underlying trend in prices..
先行きの物価の基調的な動きは、マクロ的な需給バランスと中長期的な予想物価上昇率に規定されます。
The outlook for the trend change in prices is determined by the aggregate supply and demand balance and the medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
もとより、物価の基調が変化し、2%の実現のために必要となれば、躊躇なく調整を行う方針です。
If there are changes in the underlying trend in inflation and it is deemed necessary to take action in order to achieve 2 percent inflation, the Bank will make adjustments as appropriate without hesitation.
In addition, although the effects of the decline in energy prices have made it hard to discern, the underlying trend in inflation has steadily improved.
Nevertheless, the underlying trend in inflation is likely to rise steadily against the background of an improvement in the output gap and a rise in medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
In doing so, it should be noted that each price index has both advantages and disadvantages, and there is no single index that appropriately reflects trend inflation for any given economic situation.
While inflation reflects temporary fluctuations such as those in commodity prices, the underlying trend in inflation is determined by the output gap and medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
The important point at this juncture is to examine whether these indicators as a whole suggest any changes in the fundamental mechanisms underlying economic activity and prices.
On the price front, while the decline in crude oil prices put downward pressure in the short term, it will lead to an improvement in the output gap and to an increase in underlying prices from a somewhat longer-term perspective.
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