The current recovery is similar to the previous two recoveries in that it greatly depends on therecovery of the world economy, particularly the economies of the United States and China. However, it seems more robust than the previous two recoveries because this time cyclical factors in the domestic economy, such as inventory and fixed investment, are gaining momentum.
One member said that it was unlikely that the rise in international commodity prices reflecting therecovery of the world economy would squeeze corporate profits on a macroeconomic level for the time being, since the rise in materials prices would be offset by improvement in productivity as well as by increases in exports and sales volumes.
However, since the pace of recovery in the global economy is likely to remain moderate and also, in Japan, pressure for adjusting employment and wages is likely to remain while the effects of demand-boosting policy measures wane, the pace of improvement in Japan's economy is likely to be moderate until around the middle of fiscal 2010.
With regard to exports, many members shared the view that they were expected to maintain an upward trend, pointing out that the positive effect on export volume of the recovery in the global economy was likely to outweigh the negative effect of the appreciation of the yen.
From the second half of 2009 to the first half of 2010, during which time the global economy posted relatively high growth, based on the experience after the collapse of the bubble in Japan the Bank made a very conservative judgment that, as balance-sheet adjustments were weighing on the U.S. and European economies, the pace of recovery in the global economy was likely to remain moderate and downside risks were prone to increase.
持続的な世界経済の回復。
Ensuring a sustainable global recovery.
世界経済の回復はさらに不均一。
The global economic recovery remains uneven.
世界経済の回復は,依然として不透明です。
The global economic recovery remains uncertain.
G20サミット世界経済の回復を共同で促進。
G20 Summit expected to help recover global economy.
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