Against this view, one member said that Japan's economy was already in the early stages of a deflationary spiral, and that the pace of decline in prices would accelerate in 2002 because the deterioration in corporate profits and employees' income would start to have a substantial impact on consumption.
One member said that when various sales statistics showed a decline in the summer, it had been cause for concern that private consumption might deteriorate further, but it was encouraging that they had been leveling off since September.
One member said that it seemed that the effects of developments in the world economy particularly those stemming from IT-related demand were concentrated in Asia, as seen in the economic recovery there, and this could be one of the factors behind the increase in exports to East Asian economies.
Based on these discussions, one member expressed the view that it was necessary to examine indicators related to private consumption carefully to judge whether an improvement in private consumption would be supported by increases in household income and/or development of new products would stimulate household spending.
With regard to East Asian economies, one member said that overheating of investment and a rise in asset prices in China could destabilize the world economy, although it was an encouraging development that China, whose economic growth remained high, was becoming a more important presence in the world economy.
Regarding developments in stock prices, one member said that stock prices reflected the views of market participants of firms' future profitability, and therefore, the weakness in prices of bank stocks suggested that their views on Japanese banks' future profitability remained severe.
One member said that an increase in the number of parts makers moving their production base abroad and the sluggishness in capital spending by small firms, many of which still felt that they had excess equipment and were still posting losses, were undermining the overall trend of business fixed investment.
One member said that economic recovery was observable not only in the United States and East Asia but throughout newly industrializing countries, and such developments could work synergistically to maintain a favorable environment for Japan's exports.
In response to this, one member said that resolution of the NPL problem was essential for the Japanese economy, but if it took a long time, it was vital that the Bank continued quantitative easing measures to secure financial market stability.
One member remarked that, since an uptrend in business fixed investment had been confirmed, attention would be focused on the following in the future:(1) to what extent fixed investment plans for fiscal 2000 would be revised upward; and(2) to what extent private consumption would improve toward the summer.
One member, however, contended that the Bank should introduce a price level target and raise the outstanding balance of current accounts to around 10 trillion yen, and that, in order to achieve the target for the outstanding balance smoothly, it should remove the restriction that the amount of the Bank's long-term JGB holdings should not exceed the amount of banknotes issued.
One member pointed out that although many of the domestic economic indicators available at the moment covered only the period before the terrorist attacks, they showed that already(1) adjustments in the corporate sector were gradually affecting the household sector, mainly in employment and income, and(2) private consumption was somewhat weak.
On this point, one member pointed out that(1) the relationship between the growth of the monetary base and the medium- to long-term inflation rate was extremely unstable, and(2) under the zero interest rate policy, the effects of monetary easing expected from increasing the monetary base were very limited.
One member explained the background of relatively firm household spending in Japan as follows:(1) anxiety about the financial system had subsided, unlike the situation in 1997-98; and(2) the expectation of progress in structural reforms might be underpinning the household sentiment.
One member commented that risk factors such as the effects of structural reforms and the disposal of NPLs, the strength of recovery in domestic private demand, and developments in asset prices were all closely related. The member pointed out that, therefore, if these risks were to materialize, it would be simultaneous.
One member contended that in considering the conduct of monetary policy for the future,(1) it was necessary to clarify whether the Bank of Japan Law allowed purchases by the Bank of foreign bonds on its own decision, and(2) it was necessary for the Government to gain the market's confidence regarding fiscal discipline in order not to narrow the Bank's discretion in monetary policy.
One member considered that it could be said that deflationary concern had been dispelled as(1) machinery orders, a leading indicator of business fixed investment, were firm,(2) the employment and income situation had been improving steadily, and(3) there was a strong possibility that production would continue to follow an upward trend.
One member expressed the view that private consumption had been showing signs of moderate recovery since the end of 2003, and this could be because consumer sentiment had been improving somewhat due to improvements in the employment situation, as evident in the increase in the number of employees, and also due to the wealth effect stemming from rising stock prices.
In response to these views, one member said that the quantitative easing policy had been effective in ensuring financial market stability, and cited the decline in interest rates, including those on instruments with relatively long maturities, and the narrowing of credit spreads, and also in achieving financial system stability, for example by dispelling liquidity concerns.
As for corporate finance, one member said that against the background of the improved liquidity position of banks, the risk that deterioration in corporate finance would exert downward pressure on the economy toward the end of fiscal 2002 due to developments in financial markets and in the financial system had been decreasing somewhat recently.
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