When balance-sheet adjustments have been progressing, massive liquidity provision by central banks has not been affecting the rate of inflation, but has contributed substantially to restoring stability in the financial system.
This channel is likely to initially exert stronger downward pressure on nominal long-term interest rates, but as the rate of inflation begins to pick up, these interest rates are expected to rise gradually.
Second, some political, economic and social dynamics influenced central bankers, and it became difficult for them to conduct monetary policy based on factors other than the inflation rate.
In this situation, the outlook for the rate of increase in real income will likely be sluggish, constraining private consumption, and consequently the acceleration in the underlying trend in inflation is likely to come to a halt.
Since ratios of personnel expenses in medical and long-term care are high, the future estimate of those benefits will be significantly affected not only by inflation rate but also by the wage increase.
The project, known in Brazil as PEC 55, freezes expenditure in the executive, judiciary and legislative branches of power, allowing them to grow only by the rate of inflation in the previous year.
While the decline in crude oil prices exerts positive effects on Japan's economy, there is a risk that the mechanism I have explained thus far will not operate if it were to affect firms' price- and wage-setting behavior through changes in inflation expectations.
However, subsequently, as the stable relationship between money supply on the one hand and the inflation rate and economic activity on the other broke down due to technological innovations in finance, money supply targeting became ineffective and was consequently abandoned.
I personally hold the view that inflation expectations of economists and market participants are useful in evaluating the consistency of the Bank's outlook and its practicality, and they may also gradually affect the inflation expectations of households and firms.
There have been only two periods since 1971 when things did not go that way and therate of increase in the CPI was higher than that of wages-- the second oil shock in 1980 and a surge in international commodity prices during 2007 and 2008 Chart 11.
In recent years, the rate of increase in the CPI may have become less sensitive to changes in the output gap. As explained below, the views on the mechanisms underlying this development will have a bearing on the outlook for the inflation rate.
The Bank reviews and releases, annually in principle, the"understanding of medium- to long-term price stability"-- that is, the level of inflation that each member of the Policy Board understands as being consistent with price stability over the medium to long term.
If that turns out to be the case, and if the rate of nominal wage increases consequently falls below therate of increase in the CPI excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike, consumers might increasingly expect that decreases in real wages will be protracted.
While I will touch later on the issue of how to define monetary policy, for the time being I will use the term in the conventional sense of"policy that aims at actively influencing the inflation rate or the economic growth rate by controlling the level of short-term interest rates..
If, for instance, the expectation takes hold that interest rates will remain low for a long time regardless of developments in economic activity and prices, this may result in medium- to long-term risks of larger swings in the economy and inflation rate through misallocation of funds and resources.
There is another view that the trend of the yen appreciation consistent with the difference in inflation rates between Japan and other countries is not a problem for firms, since firms' competitiveness is, in theory, affected by the real exchange rates which take into account the difference in inflation rates.
Prior to the introduction of the goal, the Bank's"understanding of medium- to long-term price stability"(hereafter"understanding") showed the range of inflation rates that each Policy Board member understood as price stability from a medium- to long-term viewpoint.
It is expected that the rate of productivity growth will improve toward around 1 percent or somewhat higher over the projection period. Accordingly, the rate of wage increases will exceed the rate of price increases(excluding the temporary effects of the consumption tax hikes) by this magnitude.
The level of inflation at which prices can be perceived as stable in the medium to long term depends on such factors as the characteristics of the economic structure of respective countries and the perception of prices held by those who have adapted to such an environment.
This is evident in two ways: one is that the rate of inflation had already moved to around 2 percent a few years prior to the euro adoption; the other is that the ECB initially defined price stability as inflation rates below 2 percent over the medium term.
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