Although estimates of the potential growth rate should be judged with some latitude, at least the observations so far suggest that the potential growth rate over the past year or two may be revised upward in a few years' time.
While the negative legacy of the asset bubble had been more or less dealt with by the mid-2000s, Japan's potential growth rate, which had been around 4 percent in the early 1990s, dropped to about 1 percent by the late 1990s Chart 5.
Given a situation in which the number of job offers from companies is greater than the number of job seekers in the labor force, China's current potential growth rate appears to have already fallen below its actual growth rate of 7.5%.
RBS Securities economists calculate that even if the percentage of women aged 15 to 64 who work- 65% in 2013- rises to 73.5% by 2030, Japan's potential growth rate would only rise by 0.14 percentage point.
One example is the table on the next slide, which shows a projection made recently by the Congressional Budget Office. Potential GDP growth may be lower in the period 2012-2013, but it is expected to return to pre-crisis levels in 2014-2022.
Another member expressed the opinion that, as the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy was estimated to be about 4 percent, an actual growth rate of below 3 percent would not be regarded as a soft but as a hard landing.
As you can see from this, if things continue as they are, and unless the nation as a whole makes the utmost effort to raise labor productivity, Japan is unlikely to achieve a rise in the potential growth rate and a sustainable expansion in demand.
In addition to the NPL problem, the tardiness of individual sectors of the economy in adapting to economic globalization, advances in IT, and other various economic changes caused a gradual decline in the potential growth rate of the economy.
The potential growth rate of the Indian economy seems to have risen from the mid+ 6% range at the end of the Singh administration to the mid+ 7% range under the Modi administration, thanks to the reforms(See Section 2(1) of this paper). Whether, however, or not the accelerating increase of the potential growth rate will continue is also uncertain.
While coping with the aftermath of the burst of the asset bubble, many economic entities such as firms and financial institutions were slow to respond to drastic changes in the economic environment such as globalization and advances in information technology. Against this background, Japan's potential growth rate declined from around 4 percent in the early 1990s to around 1 percent in the late 1990s.
日本の潜在成長率は1%程度まで低下しています。
Japan's potential growth rate is estimated to be only around 1%.
日本銀行によると、現在の潜在成長率は0.5%にすぎない。
Today, the Bank of Japan puts Japan's potential growth rate at just 0.5 percent.
しかし、韓国の潜在成長率は2012年以降は大幅に鈍る見通しだ。
However, potential for strong growth in South Africa has been evident since 2014.
日本の潜在成長率は、現在の2%弱から1.2%へと低下。
Japan's potential growth rate will decline from just under 2% at present to 1.2.
日本の潜在成長率は、1990年代以降、趨勢的に低下してきました(図表9)。
Japan's potential growth rate has been on a declining trend since the 1990s Chart 9.
わが国の潜在成長率は、1990年代以降、趨勢的に低下してきました(図表10)。
Japan's potential growth rate has been declining as a trend since the 1990s Chart 10.
つまり、生産性を維持しながらも、日本の潜在成長率は約2%減少したと想定できる。
This implies that, holding productivity constant, Japan's potential growth rate must have declined by about 2 per cent.
一部の経済指標は過去1年間で経済活動が改善したことを示しているが、潜在成長率は依然として低い。
While some indicators suggest a pick-up in economic activity over the past year, potential economic growth remains low.
To summarize, Japan's potential growth rate has declined in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, partly owing to the sluggish economic growth..
Although all approaches introduced in this review suggest that the potential growth rate in Japan has recently declined, significant uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of its fall.
English
中文
عربى
Български
বাংলা
Český
Dansk
Deutsch
Ελληνικά
Español
Suomi
Français
עִברִית
हिंदी
Hrvatski
Magyar
Bahasa indonesia
Italiano
Қазақ
한국어
മലയാളം
मराठी
Bahasa malay
Nederlands
Norsk
Polski
Português
Română
Русский
Slovenský
Slovenski
Српски
Svenska
தமிழ்
తెలుగు
ไทย
Tagalog
Turkce
Українська
اردو
Tiếng việt