On the recent decline in long-term yields, one member expressed the recognition that, taking into account the objective of the measure introduced in July to strengthen the framework for continuous powerful monetary easing, long-term yields should be allowed to temporarily turn negative.
One member said that, since their capacity to absorb the rise in energy and materials prices by reducing unit labor cost was declining, firms might pass the rise in energy and materials prices on if they were increasingly perceived as likely to remain high.
Meanwhile, one member said that, amid sluggish inflation, the importance of achieving the price stability target at the earliest possible time through additional monetary easing had been increasing, considering the outlook for Japan's financial system and overseas economies.
Based on this, one member expressed the view that, when controlling the long-term yields, it was important to conduct market operations more flexibly with a view to maintaining the functioning of financial markets as much as possible.
One member said that, although financial markets had been calm recently, uncertainties regarding the global economy were high and it was necessary to be vigilant about the possibility that both the real economy and financial markets would deteriorate through an adverse feedback loop.
One member said that although the slowdown in global IT-related demand was affecting exports and production, production in other industries, particularly materials, remained strong, and therefore production as a whole had been on an increasing trend.
In response to these opinions, one member expressed the view that, at this point, when medium- to long-term inflation expectations were weak, making policy adjustments that could allow the long-term yields to rise might lead to an increase in real interest rates and thereby contribute to sluggish inflation.
Moreover, one member expressed the recognition that, in fiscal 2019, the underlying trend in prices would be very difficult to grasp due to various factors such as the effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike and provision of free education, as well as a possible decline in crude oil prices and a reduction in mobile phone-related prices.
Members also discussed the auction results of the Bank's operation in early June where the total amount of bids fell short of the amount the Bank had offered. One member who had stressed the adverse effects of the zero interest rate policy earlier pointed out that these auction results were another such negative effect.
One member pointed out that, in addition to the prolonged trade friction between the United States and China, such factors as the risk of capital outflows from emerging economies, difficulties surrounding negotiations on the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union(EU), and the heightening of geopolitical risks concerning Saudi Arabia had led to a worsening of risk sentiment in the stock market.
One member added that, regarding the effects on the global economy of the trade friction between the United States and China, attention should be paid not only to the direct impact on each country's trade activity, but also to the possibility that these effects would intensify through such indirect channels as the turmoil in global financial markets and the deterioration in business sentiment.
One member commented that, as the supply chains supporting the automobile market in China-- which was the world's largest-- involved various industries, such as electronic parts, iron and steel, and chemicals, in a wide range of areas, the peaking out of China's automobile sales might significantly affect Asian economies, including Japan's, and the European economy.
Meanwhile, one member pointed out that, in a situation where some of the downside risks to overseas economies had materialized, a downward shift in Japan's economic phase had begun to progress, and, depending on developments in overseas economies and the effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike, movement toward an economic downturn could heighten going forward.
Meanwhile, one member-- noting that it was questionable whether a commitment by the Bank solely to continue with the low interest rate policy would have an effect beyond merely confirming its current policy stance-- commented that it was more important to design forward guidance to stimulate aggregate demand and inflation expectations so that monetary easing would not become prolonged.
Meanwhile, one member noted that, as a policy tool for addressing the problems of a decline in the functioning of financial intermediation and the accumulation of financial imbalances, the importance of prudential policy that aimed at ensuring the stability of the financial system should not be overlooked, although some held a view that focused on monetary policy measures such as changing the target levels of policy rates.
One member said that the recent delay in inflation was attributable to the combination of a deflationary mindset based on negative hysteresis-- the phenomenon whereby prolonged stagnant demand brings about a decline in supply capacity-- and factors that exerted downward pressure on prices such as the improvement in productivity over the past few years.
One member said that the difference between the trend of real GDP growth rate and real short-term interest rates had expanded considerably, and thus the Bank should conduct monetary policy appropriately so as not to be too late, paying attention to the risk of monetary policy becoming too stimulative, given that economic activity and prices were expected to follow the path projected in the April Outlook Report.
Meanwhile, one member said that the possibility of the Bank achieving the price stability target by fiscal 2020 seemed low under the current guideline for market operations. This member commented that it therefore was necessary to encourage a further widening of the output gap within positive territory by taking additional easing measures and a rise in inflation expectations through reinforcing the inflation-overshooting commitment.
Meanwhile, one member said that-- with a view to reinforcing the inflation-overshooting commitment and achieving the price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time-- it was necessary for the Bank to add a commitment that it would take some sort of additional monetary easing measures if the Bank revised downward its assessment of medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
As for land prices, one member said that, according to the urban land price index, commercial land prices in the six large city areas had posted positive growth compared to six months previously for the first time in 14 years, and that the way in which the effects of this development spread to private consumption and business fixed investment should be monitored.
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